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Stop Building Software. Start Replacing Work.

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Stop Building Software. Start Replacing Work.

Stop Building Software. Start Replacing Work.

4 min

The Next €100B Companies Won’t Sell Software. They’ll Deliver Outcomes.

The signal is no longer just noise; it’s a roar. By early 2026, industry estimates suggested companies like Anthropic had moved from roughly ~$1B revenue run rate at the start of 2025 to a $30B revenue run rate end of March 2026.

They are describing a system designed to absorb parts of the $70T global service economy.

For the first time, software can both reason and act.

The Shift: From Tool-Maker to Work-Taker

We have now entered the era of displacing workflows. AI systems will no longer be selling “assistance”; they will be selling “outcomes.”

  • Old World: A tool that helps a lawyer review a contract.

  • New World: A system that returns a fully analyzed, risk-mitigated contract.

The “Harness” as the New Moat

Access to a model is not a business; execution is. The Harness Layer is where raw model capability is converted into deterministic business outcomes.

Just as using the same racket as Novak Djokovic doesn’t make you play like him, access to powerful AI models does not create value on its own.

A New Framework for Founders and Investors

For Founders: Stop building features. Design for “automation-first.”

For Investors: What % of a workflow is automated? How many euros of labor are displaced per customer?

The Path to Trillions

The companies that move from millions to billions won’t be the ones that sold the best tools. They will be the ones that absorbed complexity, automated it, and sold the outcome.

Expon Capital

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News and insights from the Luxembourg tech ecosystem.

© 2025 Expon Capital. Authorised and regulated by the CSSF. All rights reserved.

Expon Capital

203 Rte d'Arlon

1150 Belair, Luxembourg

Newsletter

News and insights from the Luxembourg tech ecosystem.

© 2025 Expon Capital. Authorised and regulated by the CSSF. All rights reserved.