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Who Survives the SaaS Repricing? Gravity, Grunt Work, and the “Zombie” Cut

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Who Survives the SaaS Repricing? Gravity, Grunt Work, and the “Zombie” Cut

Who Survives the SaaS Repricing? Gravity, Grunt Work, and the “Zombie” Cut

4 min

Two weeks ago, I wrote about the “SaaSpocalypse”—the $1.8 trillion market-cap wipeout triggered by the realization that AI agents are no longer just “helpers,” but potential replacements for the software itself. The crash isn’t a “SaaSpocalypse”, it’s the start of a great filter. As AI agents move from novelty to utility, the industry is splitting into two camps: Survivors and the Walking Dead.

Survival isn’t about having the best “AI features.” It comes down to two unsexy factors: Data Gravity and The Hassle Gap.

1. The Survival Logic: Gravity vs. Complexity

The narrative that “enterprises will just build their own apps now” is mostly a myth. Why? The Hassle Gap. Even if AI makes coding “free,” it doesn’t make maintenance, security, or integration free.

The “Data Gravity” Moat

Companies will stay with a platform not because they love the UI, but because their data is already there and moving it is a nightmare.

  • The Survivor: Platforms that act as the “System of Record” with 10+ years of historical context.

  • The Zombie: “Shallow wrappers” or narrow tools. If an LLM can replicate your entire feature set in a single prompt, you are a feature, not a company.

2. The Winners: Platforms vs. Wedges

  • The Startup Strategy: You still need a wedge. Trying to sell a “Full Business Operating System” on Day 1 is a death sentence.

  • The End State: To survive long-term, you must expand into a Full Scope Platform.

The Rule of Thumb: Service applications that cover 80% of a company’s needs for a very low cost are un-killable.

3. The New Kingmakers: Brand Power & LLM Recommendations

  • Agentic SEO: Will an AI agent recommend your tool to a CFO? Only if you have the best Value-for-Money ratio and a verified reputation.

  • Economic Honesty: The “Zombie Era” is defined by companies with 80% margins that should actually be 50%.

4. The Survivor Scorecard

Score each pillar from 0–5 (25+ = Strong Survivor).

5. Open Questions

Q1: Can Agent Swarms Replicate Legacy Systems?

  • The 24-Month Outlook: Is this a fantasy, or will “vibe coding” reach a level where we can “Control-C” a legacy ERP and “Control-V” a custom internal clone?

  • The Decision Gap: Even if it’s possible, will Enterprise CIOs take the risk of “owning the code” again?

Q2: Will SMEs and Enterprises Diverge Completely?

  • Enterprise: Might move toward custom, agent-built internal cores to maximize “Data Sovereignty.”

  • SMEs: Might move toward ultra-low-cost, “good enough” platforms.

Join the Conversation: Do you believe agent swarms will kill the “Switching Cost” moat by 2027? Comment below or DM me.

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1150 Belair, Luxembourg

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Expon Capital

203 Rte d'Arlon

1150 Belair, Luxembourg

Newsletter

News and insights from the Luxembourg tech ecosystem.

© 2025 Expon Capital. Authorised and regulated by the CSSF. All rights reserved.